Rick Perry won the Republican nomination to continue as governor of Texas by a wide margin. To the surprise of many people, he avoided a runoff with Kay Bailey Hutchinson in the process. The final vote tally is Rick Perry with 757,461 – 51.09%, Kay Bailey Hutchinson 449,632 – 30.33% and Debra Medina 275,604 18.59%.
Perry ran an anti-Washington campaign labeling Hutchinson as a Washington insider who would bring a Washington agenda to the state of Texas. This is a message that could resound throughout primary elections in other states. In the Texas governor’s race, the anti-Washington factor trumped the anti-incumbent fervor that is sweeping the nation. Perry is Texas’ longest serving governor, now in his 10th year.
In her concession speech, Hutchinson did not mention her political future; except to encourage her voters to throw their support behind Perry. Her third term in the Senate runs through 2012, but she said in a broadcast last month she would leave Congress before the November general election. Many Texas conservatives prefer she reconsider and finish her term, a desire shared by some of her colleagues. Sen. Judd Gregg said Hutchison is “one of our best” and should remain in her Senate seat. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas who serves as the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Tuesday, “I’m not sure there will be a special election. . . . She could well decide to serve out the remainder of her term.”
Perry will face Democrat Bill White , the former Houston mayor, in a race that both Democrats and Republicans expect to be very competitive with close results. White won the Democratic nomination with 75.99% of the vote, even though he had six challengers. The Democratic Governors Association has exhibited their confidence in White’s ability to defeat Perry by giving him $500,000 with more expected to follow. White’s campaign is taking the “outsider” approach.
In the Republican primary, Perry was able to label Hutchison as the epitome of everything that’s wrong with Washington which was music to the ears of many people in the Tea Party movement. Even though this was just one primary and in a very conservative state at that, there are some observations that could play into other primaries as well.
1) Anything to that even “sounds or smells like a Washington insider” is suspect. Hutchison made the mistake of touting how many federal dollars she had brought to the state of Texas at a time when Pork Barrel spending and state funded favors are getting significant negative attention. Hutchinson said, “It definitely has made it more difficult for me. I didn’t think that anyone could turn my success in producing results for Texas into a negative.” That is exactly what Perry was able to do.
2) Anti-Washington Republicans, even if they are an incumbent, have an advantage with Tea Party movement voters. Perry had a non-incumbent challenger in Medina who identified with the Tea Party, yet he still pulled a large percentage of Tea Party votes. He was able to do so by effectively criticizing a big-government, big-spending Democratic agenda. He proved that Republicans who embrace anti-federal government views and policies can attract these voters without turning off the GOP base.
3) A solid Tea Party identity does not translate into automatic Tea Party votes. Medina – who many considered to be “the” Tea Party candidate — did not pull enough votes from Perry to force a runoff, let alone win the nomination.
4) In order to defeat an incumbent who has a favorable rating, the challengers must give the voters a clear reason to choose them rather than the incumbent. Hutchison gave reasons such as “coming home to Texas”, “I love the state of Texas” , or “Gov. Perry is trying to stay too long.” She never really gave a reason as to why Perry should not serve another term or why Texas Republicans should upset the status quo of two popular people in positions of power – one in Austin as the governor and the other in Washington as a senator. The status quo has been good for Texas in many ways where the recession has been less devastating than in other states, the unemployment rate is below the national average, and corporations are not being bailed out. Perry has received much of the credit for the state being in better shape than others.
In the final count, the voters rejected change — and Washington.
Though Tea Party “identified” candidates did not pull off of any major victories, Medina put up strong numbers at 18%, despite the fact she was running against two very strong challengers in Perry and Hutchinson. Phillip Dennis , who sits on the steering committee of the Dallas Tea Party said Tuesday morning, “Certainly, a lot of her (Medina) supporters in the Tea Party movement are very vocal and very motivated — and they will vote.” The question is, “will the traditional voters for Perry and Hutchison turn out in the numbers that they need.”
One incumbent who did lose to a Tea Party identified candidate was Republican State Rep. Tommy Merritt who lost to David Simpson . After the votes were counted, Merritt said of Simpson’s voters, “I’ve never seen these people before. They’re not the Chamber people. They’re not the normal contributors to the community….The Tea Party people were just out for a scalp on a stick.” In HD-83, Tea Party candidate Charles Perry is in a run-off against State Rep. Delwin Jones.
Where the Tea Party movement did play a huge role in the primary was in the number of people who voted. From all indications, many people who did not vote in 2006 did vote this year – for Medina. In 2006, total turnout was 655,919 but Tuesday’s primary drew over 1.4 million voters to the polls. When asked if credit goes to the Tea Party for huge increase in voters, Dennis said, “Absolutely.”
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